2025 Indian Wells Men's Draw Breakdown
A deep dive into the first Masters 1000 of the 2025 season
It’s time for the first North American hard court swing of the season, a quick March stopover in the United States before jetting off to Europe for the clay court season. The BNP Paribas Open, otherwise known as Indian Wells or ‘Tennis Paradise’ kicks off its main draw today.
Indian Wells can feel like a fresh start to the season, a time to shake off the winter February doldrums and bad Aussie Open results and kick the season off anew. It certainly has been that for Carlos Alcaraz as he’s never been past the quarterfinals at the AO but after winning Indian Wells the past two years, he usually goes on to win a major or two the rest of the year.
Alright lets get into it, for reference check out the full draw here.
Key Storylines in the Desert
A Sinner-less tournament - The first big tournament missing the suspended best player in the world means that Sascha Zverev is the top seed.
What’s That Racket Stefano? - A resurgent Tsitsipas armed with a new racquet (speculated to be a Babolat Pure Aero 98), won Dubai his first ATP 500 title after losing 12 ATP 500 finals, and he’s moved back into the top ten.
Djokovic Potential Blockbusters - Djokovic could meet best bud Nick Kyrgios in the second round and if he gets to the quarter-finals he could battle with a guy named Alcaraz.
The Coming of Joao - 18-year-old Brazilian phenom Joao Fonseca makes his Indian Wells debut and fans stateside will be drooling with anticipation to check out that electric forehand on the practice courts and in big matches in the desert. He will face Great Britain’s Jacob Fearnley in his first match, with a potential 2nd round match against 13th-seeded Jack Draper.
Potential Quarter-Final Matchups Based on Seedings:
Zverev (1) vs. Tsitsipas (8)
Ruud (4) vs. Medvedev (5)
Fritz (3) vs. Rublev (7)
Alcaraz (2) vs. Djokovic (6) (!)
Zverev’s Quarter
If Sascha Zverev was the top seed of a major it would be weird, at a Masters 1000 not so much. He has won seven Masters 1000 but has yet to obtain that elusive major title and the wounds of his loss at the Aussie Open final this past January seem to be lingering. He’s the top seed here but also nowhere near the best player in the world right now. He went to South America in February presumably to get some extra clay court mileage in for a big run at Roland Garros and it was a flop. He lost early to a couple of Argentinians (F. Cerundolo (28) and F. Comesana (86) in Buenes Aires and Rio, respectively), he then went to Acapulco to transition to hard court and lost in his 2nd match to young phenom Learner Tien (which to be fair could have been the e.coli going around).
Sascha is not in a good space right now and he’s got some difficult opponents in his sight line, so this quarter could be up for grabs. He’ll meet a couple of in-form players off the jump, either Kecmanovic or Griekspoor, and then potentially the massive serving Mpetshi-Perricard in the 3rd round. After that, there’s Machac fresh off a title in Acapulco and if he gets that far it could be Tsitsipas armed with booming confidence thanks to his new Babolat racquet.
Tsitsipas could face a rejuvenated Berrettini in the 3rd round, a rematch of their epic three setter in Doha, where Berrettini actually won more points than Tsitsipas. Regardless, I think Tsitsi rides the good vibes of winning Doha and the honeymoon period with the new racquet and makes it to the semis.
Potential Popcorn Matchups:
A. Zverev vs. T. Griekspoor/M. Kecmanovic (Round 2)
A. Zverev vs. Mpetshi-Perricard (Round 3)
M. Berrettini vs. S. Tsitsipas (Round 3)
Semifinalist: Stefanos Tsitsipas
Ruud’s Quarter
After Ruud’s early 2nd round exit at the AO to Jakub Mensik, he made the final at the Dallas Open, losing to a peaking Shapovalov, and then he got struck down by the food poisoning outbreak in Acapulco withdrawing from his 2nd round match. Assuming he’s recovered from the e.coli, his draw in comparison to Zverev’s does not feature anyone who’s in a dangerous mood. Musetti and Norrie have barely played since the AO, Medvedev has played but doesn’t have any results to show for it.
Daniil has lost early-ish in every tournament he’s played this year and he doesn’t seem to like the change to the courts at Indian Wells so if he can’t sort out his game in time there could be trouble. He could end up facing young, up and coming Nishesh Basavareddy in the 2nd round who took a set off Novak at the AO earlier this year. If Medvedev and Ruud falter early, than this quarter could be Tommy Paul’s for the taking. Tommy has been in pretty good form, making the quarters at the AO and also losing to Shapo in the semis at Dallas. He made the semis last year and loves the vibes at Indian Wells, playing for the home crowd, so I think he backs up last year’s results again this year.
Potential Popcorn Matchups
N. Basavareddy vs. D. Medvedev (Round 2)
T. Paul vs. D. Medvedev (Round 4)
Semifinalist: Tommy Paul
Fritz’s Quarter
This is the Young Guns Quarter. Fritz heads up a difficult field full of phenoms with firepower and players who found their form in February. You got big forehands, big serves and youth that can cover a helluva a lot of court, with the likes of Ben Shelton, Jack Draper, Joao Fonseca, Jakub Mensik, Learner Tien, Rinky Hijikata, Matteo Arnaldi, and Brandon Nakashima. Fritz is in a bit of a funk this year and dealing with an abdominal issue. He lost early to Monfils, Shapovalov and Davidovich-Fokina at the AO, Dallas, and Delray, respectively, before withdrawing from Acapulco.
Along with the young guns lurking, there’s also some veteran presence with Karen Khachanov, Felix Auger-Aliassime, and Andrey Rublev in the quarter. Rublev’s fresh off a confidence-building win in Doha and FAA has been showing glimpses of that old promise; playing the final in Dubai, making the semis in Doha, and winning Montpellier.
Jack Draper, who Rublev beat in the Doha final, has also been playing great and could face phenom Joao Fonseca in the 2nd round. After the Doha final, Draper had to withdraw from Dubai to manage an injury, which means he might not be ready for Joao’s firepower. If Joao makes it through Fearnley and Draper, could he shock FAA too? And then set up a rematch with Rublev (who he beat at the AO this year)? Am I really going to predict Fonseca makes the semis here? With so much firepower in this quarter its impossible to predict. So why not? Crazier things have happened and seeing the young phenom breakthrough would be super exciting.
Potential Popcorn Matchups:
J. Draper vs. J. Fonseca (Round 2)
J. Draper vs. F. Auger-Aliassime (Round 3)
B. Shelton vs. L. Tien (Round 2)
B. Shelton vs. A. Rublev (Round 4)
Semifinalist: Joao Fonseca
Alcaraz’s Quarter
Carlitos’ quarter could be interesting. Djokovic has once again landed in his section, the third time in a row in 2025. After their epic AO QF, the Doha match up didn’t materialize with both crashing out early. Will it happen this time around? It’s probably up to Djokovic, as Alcaraz has owned this tournament the past two years (not to mention barely losing an epic semi-final against Rafa in 2022). Djokovic crashed out early last year to Luca Nardi and he hasn’t won a match since he withdrew from the AO semi-final against Zverev. His first match could be against bestie Nick Kyrgios, but Kyrgios cut practice short yesterday due to wrist pain so we’ll see if he even plays. If he does play, that wrist won’t get a break facing ball-bashing, lucky loser Botic van de Zandschulp, who has been known to cause an upset or two (see: Alcaraz at the US Open & Rafa at Davis Cup in 2024) so its no guarantee that we’ll see that blockbuster 2nd round match between Nick and Novak.
On Alcaraz’s side of the quarter, things could get complicated after round two if he faces a surging Shapovalov who’s bursting with confidence and bounding around with that lefty firepower again after beating three top-ten seeds en route to winning the Dallas Open. Beyond that there are some question marks, Dimitrov has been struggling with injuries, Korda will have to face Monfils or J.L Struff in Round 2 so its anyone’s guess who will make it to Alcaraz. De Minaur, who faced Alcaraz in the Rotterdam final (stealing a set), could be the last man standing against Djokovic and the last obstacle to a mouth-watering Djokovic/Alcaraz quarter-final.
Potential Popcorn Matchups:
N. Djokovic vs. N. Kyrgios (Round 2)
C. Alcaraz vs. D. Shapovalov (Round 3)
S. Korda vs. G. Monfils/J. Struff (Round 2)
C. Alcaraz vs. N. Djokovic (Quarter-final)
Semifinalist: Carlos Alcaraz
Semifinal Predictions:
Tommy Paul def. Stefanos Tsitsipas
Can Tsitsipas new racquet overcome a partisan crowd desperately pulling Tommy Paul to the finish line? I’m not sure it can. The new faster courts will help Tsitsipas’ shots and hurt Tommy Paul’s chances of running down every ball, but Tsitsi’s never made a deep run at Indian Wells and Tommy will have the crowd and the experience playing at Indian Wells on his side. This could easily go either way but I gotta go with the American.
Carlos Alcaraz def. Joao Fonseca
Can you imagine the hype around this match? I’m really just speaking this match into existence by predicting it here cause we need a popcorn semi when we can’t have a Sinner-Alcaraz match. And imagine this is after a Djokovic/Alcaraz QF? SHEESH. Carlos loves the vibes at Indian Wells and even in his first press appearance he says he always looks forward to Indian Wells. Last year, he withstood a bee invasion and still won the tournament, this could be a three-setter but until I see someone take the crown from Carlitos at Indian Wells, I’m not betting against him.
Final Prediction:
Carlos Alcaraz def. Tommy Paul
Tommy Paul has given Alcaraz fits before but also see last sentence above.
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