2025 Miami Open Men's Draw Breakdown
Zverev, Alcaraz and the rest of the top seeds look to bounce back after Draper dominated Indian Wells
The backend of the Sunshine Double kicks off in Miami, after Jack Draper’s dominant win in the desert. Here are the key storylines to look for, where everyone is trying to salvage what’s left of the hard court season, before its off to Europe for the clay.
Key Storylines in Miami
Djokovic Returns - The six-time champ returns to the Sunshine State for the first time since 2019, looking to resuscitate his season in the 305.
Can Sascha justify his top seed? - Zverev once again comes into the tournament as the top seed and looks to find his form after his flame out in the desert.
Alcaraz bounce back win? - The last time Carlitos lost in the semi-finals at Indian Wells was 2022 (to Rafa), after that, which he referenced in his post-match press conference, he won Miami. He’s looking for history to repeat itself.
Sunshine Double Salvation - Zverev, Ruud, Rublev, and Fritz lost early at Indian Wells so they’ll be focused on salvaging their Sunshine Double with a strong showing at Miami Gardens.
Potential Quarter-Final Matchups Based on Seedings:
(1) A. Zverev vs. (6) J. Draper
(3) T. Fritz vs. (8) A. Rublev
(4) N. Djokovic vs. (7) D. Medvedev
(2) C. Alcaraz vs. (5) C. Ruud
The full draw can be found here.
Something tells me much like at Indian Wells, we won’t see these quarter-finals come to pass. Here’s a breakdown of the men’s side including picks and predictions:
Zverev’s Quarter
Having the top seed in your quarter should be a tough draw for everyone else, but right now it feels like the opposite. Everyone seems to be a tough out for Sascha. As noted above, Zverev will be focused on turning his season around since his Australian Open final loss, and making up for his 2nd round loss to Talon Greikspoor at Indian Wells.
Once again the draw gods haven’t been kind to the top seed, where right off the bat he could meet up and comer Jacob Fearnley in the 2nd round (if Fearnley can get through Benjamin Bonzi).
This quarter looks eerily dangerous as his previous one in the desert, and this time the other top seed in this quarter is newly crowned Indian Wells champion Jack Draper. Griekspoor is once again lurking to set up a potential 4th round clash. However, that rematch is not guaranteed and could end up being an even tougher test for Zverev as Arthur Fils, who was a missed volley away from beating Medvedev to reach the semis at Indian Wells, could be there instead. Before that trouble, Zverev could face massive serving Perricard in the third round.
If Draper and Zverev meet in the quarter-final that will be a great result for Zverev given the players he could face, and it will be impressive for Draper avoiding the emotional hangover of winning the biggest title of his career. Jack could have a tough test up first though, a potential clash with NextGen star Jakub Mensik.
Holger Rune is also in this section and it’ll be interesting how he reacts after his big run at Indian Wells. He’s always been streaky and inconsistent so a big performance at this tournament may foretell a breakout for the rest of the season. He’ll face a big server off the jump, either Opelka or Eubanks and could see Tomas Machac in round 3 and then potentially a rematch of the Indian Wells final with Jack Draper in round 4.
While there could be an emotional letdown, Jack’s form was so good at Indian Wells and his path to the title wasn’t overly taxing, only losing one set to Alcaraz. There is the change of conditions to take into account but no one else in this section thrives in Miami either. This also wasn’t out of nowhere as Jack was playing well in Australia before he had to pull out with injury and he made the final in Doha. Here’s betting that the thicker, humid air in Miami is just as helpful to Jack’s lefty spin as the dry desert.
Potential Popcorn Matchups:
A. Zverev vs. J. Fearnley (Round 2)
A. Fils vs. T. Griekspoor (Round 2)
A. Zverev vs. A. Fils/T. Griekspoor (Round 4)
J. Draper vs. J. Mensik (Round 2)
J. Draper vs. H. Rune (Round 4)
Semifinalist: Jack Draper
Fritz’s Quarter
In our Indian Wells preview, we highlighted how Fritz found himself in the young guns corner of the draw, which included a ton of NextGen stars and champion Jack Draper. This time around he’s in a difficult portion of the draw full of seasoned veterans (Berrettini, Shapovalov, Humbert, Nishikori, Norrie), a couple of top tens (Rublev, de Minaur) and one knocking on the door (Ben Shelton). Add in Joao Fonseca, fresh off a victory at the loaded Arizona Tennis Classic ATP Challengers tournament in Phoenix and it is really a Quarter of Death (QoD).
Shapo could be waiting for Fritz in round 3 if he can navigate through Jarry or Cobolli. After that test, Fritz could get Shelton or Hurkacz and then either Rublev or de Minuar. Like I said, it’s a loaded section, difficult to predict.
But I’m going to go with Ben Shelton, he made the semis at the AO and quarter’d at Indian Wells, losing to the champion in both instances, so he’s in fine form and flying high after hard launching his new relationship with Trinity Rodman.
Potential Popcorn Matchups:
T. Fritz vs. D. Shapovalov (Round 3)
B. Shelton vs. H. Hurkacz (Round 3)
J. Fonseca vs. L. Tien (Round 1)
M. Berrettini vs. K. Nishikori (Round 2)
M. Berrettini vs. A. Rublev (Round 3)
Semifinalist: Ben Shelton
Djokovic’s Quarter
Somehow Djokovic lost in the 2nd round at Indian Wells, hasn’t won a match since January and he moved up to the fourth seed? If you say so. Djokovic also finds himself in a tricky section, he’ll face Rinky Hijikata in the 2nd round and then could see rising star Alex Michelsen in round 3 and if he can get through that, he’ll either face Musetti or FAA. Musetti has troubled him on clay in the past1, which may or may not be relevant depending on how fast the courts in Miami are playing but given that Djoker is struggling to find his form, any match could end up being interesting.
On the other side of the quarter you have Tsitsipas, he of the blacked out Babolat racquet, and Medvedev, who the desert seemed to rejuvenate, until he was stopped by an in-form Holger Rune in the semifinals. I think Djokovic finds his game in Miami and sets up a clash with Medvedev in the quarters, which I think Medvedev will be more motivated to take. Novak will be happy to have made the quarters and found his game and if it’s a hot one he won’t want to risk injury or exhaustion and tax himself too much before the clay season ahead.
Potential Popcorn Matchups:
D. Medvedev vs. G. Monfils (Round 3)
D. Medvedev vs. S. Tsitsipas (Round 4)
N. Djokovic vs. A. Michelsen (Round 3)
N. Djokovic vs. L. Musetti (Round 4)
Semifinalist: Daniil Medvedev
Alcaraz Quarter’s
Alcaraz should not mind his draw one bit. He has a bunch of players that aren’t in good form and others that he’s beaten handily at Indian Wells. Ruud should be motivated to make up for his early loss in the desert and he’s historically done well in Miami, playing the final when Alcaraz won in 2022.
Grigor Dimitrov will have some added pressure to back up his finalist result and protect his points from last year which will be tough to do unless he can go ‘God mode’ again in the quarterfinals versus Alcaraz. Grigor’s first match will be against 17 year old Federico Cina. The Italian wild card recipient won his first ever ATP match earlier today and has been talked about in the same breath as that other teen Joao Fonseca.
Tommy Paul lost in the fourth round at Indian Wells to Medvedev so he’ll look to at least make that round to set up a clash with Ruud to see who will face Alcaraz in the quarters. All in all I think a motivated Alcaraz finds his game here and makes it to the semis.
Potential Popcorn Matchups:
C. Alcaraz vs. G. Dimitrov (Round 4)
K. Khachanov vs. N. Kyrgios (Round 2)
T. Paul vs. A. Bublik (Round 2)
Semifinalist: Carlos Alcaraz
Miami Semifinals:
Jack Draper vs. Ben Shelton
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Daniil Medvedev
I’ll save the predictions for the quarterfinal preview next week because Miami will likely be a completely different story than Indian Wells so I’m sure we’ll see some surprises.
Taking him to five sets twice at Roland Garros and beating him at Monte Carlo.
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