2025 Australian Open Men's Draw Breakdown
A deep dive into the draw of the first major of the 2025 season
The first major of 2025 is already here but I’m still baffled at how the 2024 season ended. 2024 was a blur, packed with drama, retirements, and historic achievements. With all the storylines and shocking news I probably should have started this Substack last year but here we are.
I’ve been running Baseline Highlights since 2018, trying to keep up with the never-ending tennis season on Instagram, TikTok and YouTube, but with Substack I’m hoping to go a little deeper on the tennis news of the day, doing deep dives on players, events, products and tennis scandals, while interacting with subscribers and maybe having some laughs along the way.
If you enjoy this tennis newsletter please subscribe because it will greatly help keep all the channels alive, as right now they are a labour of love.
Anyway back to 2024; The thing is it’s not immediately clear to me when (or if?) the 2024 tennis season ended. There was the semi-official end of the slam and big title season when Sinner swept through the US Open and ATP Finals. But it felt like it symbolically ended with Rafa’s retirement at Davis Cup in mid-November. And then Joao Fonseca won the NextGen Finals on December 22nd (!). And suddenly, a few days later, the Aussie summer swing was upon us with the 2025 United Cup, Brisbane International and Hong Kong Open starting December 27-30th, 2024 (!). One thing that’s certain is that tennis never stops and truly nothing ever ends.
This first post will break down the 2025 Aussie Open men’s draw quarter by quarter and even give you some predictions on who will end up hoisting the Norman Brookes Challenge Cup. Feel free to roast me in the comments on how wrong I end up being.
And with that I’d like to formally kick off Baseline Highlights’ first Substack post (still trying to figure everything out on this platform so please bear with me).
Key Storylines Heading into the Australian Open:
Jannik Sinner defending his first grand slam title with the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) appeal and a potential two year suspension hanging over his head.
Carlos Alcaraz attempting to become the youngest player ever to complete the Career Slam.
Novak Djokovic, with new coach Andy Murray in tow, attempting to regain his Melbourne dominance and win a 25th grand slam and 100th career title.
Alexander Zverev entering his first major as the #2 seed, looking to finally win that elusive first grand slam title.
(1) All of these key storylines could play on the mind of each of these stars in a positive or negative light. So far, Jannik has played incredibly well for someone who’s gone through the International Tennis Integrity Agency (ITIA) doping process and continues to live every day with the specter of a two year ban due to WADA’s appeal, which he’ll have to drag around until April. Does the axe dangling over his head finally affect his play? Or does he continue mowing down the competition like so much cut grass.
(2) For some reason Alcaraz hasn’t shown his best tennis Down Under. His seasons have really taken off at Indian Wells which catapults him into the clay season and then winning Wimbledon. Can Alcaraz buck the IW trend? When he puts pressure on himself by openly calling out he wants the AO, it sometimes doesn’t go well (see: Paris Olympics gold medal final).
(3) Novak comes into this tournament with a new coach, trying to breath some fire back into his belly and find motivation after completing the game of tennis. Playing in Brisbane was outside the norm for him, a function of not having the late season reps of playing and (usually) winning the ATP Finals. He’s likely a little low on confidence heading into Melbourne but this tournament has always been the bedrock from which he’s built his sterling seasons of yore.
(4) Sascha comes into the first major of the season as the 2nd seed, still major-less but knocking at the door. Can he finally get over the hump? When he gets to the final stages it seems to be more of a battle with himself than his opponent. Or both. No man alive has won majors battling two opponents at the same time.
Jannik Sinner (1)’s Quarter Seeds:
Alex de Minaur (8)
Stefanos Tsitsipas (11)
Holger Rune (13)
Hubert Hurkacz (18)
Karen Khachanov (19)
Francisco Cerundolo (31)
Flavio Cobolli (32)
The defending champion’s dominance at hard court majors means the only person Sinner would have to fear landing early in his quarter was Novak (maybe Kyrgios for the awkward vibes and handshake?). With neither Nick and Novak landing here, Sinner can breathe a sigh of relief but he does have a tough 1st round opponent in Nico Jarry, so if he has some defending champion jitters it could be a tight one. Berrettini could find his old form but that backhand side still isn’t strong enough to stand up to Sinner, so beyond that he will likely breeze to the semis unless Tsitsipas’ new service motion turns him into Pistol Pete and Holger finds his 2022 Paris Indoors form.
Popcorn R1 Matchups:
Jannik Sinner vs. Nicolas Jarry
Cameron Norrie vs. Matteo Berrettini
Holger Rune vs. Zhizhen Zhang
Semifinalist: Jannik Sinner
Taylor Fritz (4)’s Quarter Seeds:
Daniil Medvedev (6)
Andrey Rublev (9)
Lorenzo Musetti (16)
Frances Tiafoe (17)
Alexei Popyrin (25)
Giovanni Mpetschi Perricard (30)
Fritz and Medvedev are on a collision course but there are a bunch of dark horse candidates that could cause some heartburn for the seeds. No one wants to see Mpetschi Perricard and his 120 Mph average SECOND serve in their part of the draw, who’s built to be a spoiler for years to come. Fresh off his NextGen title Joao Fonseca is set to face Rublev in the first round and even though Rublev is the much higher seed that match is on everyone’s upset alert. Can Fritz repeat his US Open performance? Is Medvedev getting enough sleep with the birth of his second child? A lot of questions in this quarter and Sinner’s opponent in the semis could easily be someone who’s never been there before.
Having said that, Medvedev seems relaxed and happy based on pre-tournament press conference seemingly buoyed by the birth of his second child. In that presser he says he had one of his best off-seasons in awhile and that players will see ‘a lot of interesting things from me’ (standing close to the baseline on return?). That is an insane thing to hear from one of the most unpredictably volatile guys on tour. I, for one, can’t wait to see what tricks the ATP’s premier trickster has up his sleeve for 2025. Daniil always excels at the AO so a rejuvenated Medvedev with ‘interesting’ tactics could be a force to be reckoned with in this quarter of the draw.
Popcorn R1 Matchups
Andrey Rublev v. Joao Fonseca
Corentin Moutet vs Alexei Popyrin
Roberto Bautista Agut vs Denis Shapovalov
Gael Monfils vs Giovanni Mpetschi Perricard
Semi finalist: Daniil Medvedev
Carlos Alcaraz (3)’s Quarter Seeds:
Novak Djokovic (7)
Grigor Dimitrov (10)
Jack Draper (15)
Sebastian Korda (22)
Jiri Lehecka (24)
Tomas Machac (26)
Jordan Thompson (27)
And here we are. The blockbuster quarter. The QOD (Quarter of Death). The one to rule them all. Okay I’ll stop. But this quarter is chock full of GOATs, Future GOATs, grizzled veterans on the upswing, young up and comers, and dangerous dark horses.
Is Novak back in form? Brisbane didn’t really give us much. Losing to Opelka could have been Opelka serve botting or it could have been Novak’s rust. Hard to say, but when has Novak ever been rusty in Australia? He always comes in with no tournament practice and goes and wins the darn thing. His loss to Reilly in Brisbane was a red flag which maybe turned a bit yellow with Reilly’s run to the final but still, this is Novak. He doesn’t lose early in Australia. Questions involving Father Time are beginning to bubble up.
This has to be one of the toughest draws Novak’s had since he became no.1 back in 2011. He’s got a bunch of land mines in his quarter including 19 year old wunderkind Basavareddy in the first round, then Machac (a tough out), his nemesis Opelka again waiting to serve from a tree in the 3rd round, and Dimitrov and Lehecka lurking— not to mention the final quarter boss: Alcaraz.
Not loving Novak’s chances but it is foolish to bet against a 10-time AO winner. It is also foolish to bet against a guy who won two majors last year - Alcaraz is armed with a new (old) hairdo, a heavier racquet and a new smoother service motion so the ingredients are there for Career Slam history.
Popcorn R1 Matchups:
Novak Djokovic vs. Nishesh Basavareddy
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Alexander Shevchenko
Grigor Dimitrov vs. Fabio Fognini
Semifinalist: Carlos Alcaraz
Alexander Zverev (2)’s Quarter Seeds:
Casper Ruud (6)
Tommy Paul (12)
Ugo Humbert (14)
Arthur Fils (20)
Alejandro Tabilo (23)
Sebastian Baez (28)
Felix Auger-Aliassime (29)
Before we get to Zverev’s draw you need to watch the moment when Novak crashed Sascha’s presser and asked him if the secret to him winning a grand slam was found in outer space. It was a bit of ribbing between friends with an undercurrent of getting in each other’s head. I still don’t know what to make of it.
Anyway, even an astronaut can see that Sascha has probably the best draw he could have asked for. Ruud could be the toughest test, having beaten Zverev on hard court (2022 Miami QF), but Ruud has never been past the 4th round at the AO and Zverev seems to be on the verge of….something.
Nick Kyrgios’ return to grand slam tennis lands him in this quarter of the draw with a potential 3rd round match up with Zverev in the cards. The question will be whether Nick can get there after he announced he’s dealing with a grade 1 abdominal strain, in addition to lack of match play after a two year injury layoff.
FAA is in the final at the Adelaide International which could be a sign of a resurgence or it could be a sign of a 250 tournament without top level competition. Jakub Mensik has been skyrocketing up the rankings taking out Ben Shelton recently in Auckland. Winning at any level breeds confidence and that’s what you should look for in a dark horse candidate. Arthur Fils is also someone who could possibly trouble Zverev, beating him on home soil in Hamburg (on clay but still). All of this to say that FAA, Mensik and Fils will have to prove they can do it in best of five or else this is a cakewalk for Zverev to the semis.
Popcorn R1 Matchups
Nick Kyrgios vs. Jacob Fearnley
Arther Fils vs. Otto Virtanen
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Jan-Lennard Struff
Semifinalist: Alexander Zverev
The complete men’s draw can be found here.
Semifinal Predictions:
These are my pre-tournament predictions but I might come back to these after the first week and see how I have done and what kind of wild swings the tournament has taken.
Jannik Sinner def. Daniil Medvedev - Maybe Medvedev’s ‘interesting’ things find a way to stop Sinner’s onslaught of power and speed? I don’t know, they would have to be mindblowingly interesting.
Carlos Alcaraz def. Alexander Zverev - Armed with a renewed service motion and refreshed mentality, Carlos gets revenge for his quarter-final loss last year.
2025 AO Final:
Carlos Alcaraz def. Jannik Sinner - Alcaraz seems to be all or nothing, if he’s made the final then he’s in good form and he’s shown he can beat Sinner at a major, always rising to the Jannik challenge. This may be very dumb betting against Sinner who is far and away the best player in the world right now but I’m kinda betting that Jannik may finally feel the weight of the WADA cloud overhead.
 | A guest post by
|